Housing economist George Ratiu breaks down the trends that will impact the sector’s performance in this podcast hosted by MHN’s Laura Valean.
What are the forces that will shape the multifamily landscape in 2026? Multi-Housing News Senior Editor Laura Valean asked George Ratiu, vice president of research at the National Apartment Association, to answer this question and many others in the final episode of this year’s NAA Insights podcast series.
After a challenging 2025 marked by uneven hiring, stubborn inflation and shifting Federal Reserve policy, the rental housing sector is entering a period of recalibration. Ratiu described 2025 as “a year of transition,” noting that operators have been navigating both softening employment data and the tail end of a historic supply wave. With new deliveries expected to fall sharply in the year ahead, he believes many markets are finally moving toward a more sustainable equilibrium.
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“From my perspective, 2026 looks cautiously optimistic for the multifamily market,” he said during the podcast, pointing to stabilizing rent growth and strengthening fundamentals across several Midwest and Northeast metros. At the same time, he warned that Sun Belt markets still working through elevated vacancy will continue to rely on concessions and pricing flexibility.
This episode also dives into the expenses most likely to pressure NOI, the conditions needed for transaction activity to accelerate, and the role multifamily AI and analytics will play in driving operational efficiency next year. For owners, developers and managers preparing budgets and strategies, this conversation provides a clear look at the dynamics that will define multifamily in 2026.
Here’s a snapshot of what Ratiu and Valean discuss:
- (1:07) How jobs, inflation and rates set the tone for 2026
- (4:24) Markets most at risk of oversupply vs. undersupply
- (6:38) Where concessions will persist next year
- (7:24) What realistic 2026 rent growth looks like
- (9:26) Which expenses will hit NOI hardest
- (11:11) What could unlock more transactions in 2026
- (13:51) If slowing starts signal balance or a future gap
- (15:31) Where BTR is positioned to thrive or struggle
- (18:15) How AI can improve efficiency and NOI
- (20:59) Key micro-signals to watch in 2026
- (24:16) Indicators that could shift the outlook
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