Will Multifamily Construction Turn the Corner in 2026?
NMHC’s new survey assesses the impact of cost increases and capital availability.
The multifamily construction market outlook is positive for 2026, according to the latest National Multifamily Housing Council survey.
This quarterly questionnaire debuted in 2022 and has undergone two iterations since, with its latest installment marking its second revision. Some of the top multifamily developers and construction companies participated in the survey, which included 81 attendants.
When asked to consider the market’s outlook over the next six months to one year, 70 percent of respondents believed conditions would improve, a 9 percent quarter-over-quarter improvement, which still accounted for a 3 percent decline year-over-year.
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Most notably, just 4 percent of contributors reckoned conditions would deteriorate over the same stretch of time. At no other point since the survey’s inception has this share been so low, underlining that a strong optimism permeates the sector’s future. The remaining 22 percent considered that the market would remain unchanged.
The multifamily construction market benefits from steady finance and equity
This perspective echoed throughout capital availability as well, as 67 percent of participants believed more equity would be earmarked toward multifamily construction across the next six month to one-year time frame. Only 4 percent considered the reverse to be true—the lowest consensus reached on this topic since its debut.
More than half of respondents—54 percent—proposed that an increase in debt flow would occur within the same interval, while 38 percent expected availability to remain stable. Just 3 percent believed less debt will enter the market, unchanged quarter-over-quarter, with both figures representing a record low.
These expected positive shifts toward the availability of capital may aid in offsetting an increase in forecasted construction costs, among other things. However, the growth in expenses could take on a milder form as just one-fifth of companies surveyed believed such prices would grow at a rate faster than inflation. This marked yet another record low, suggesting possible construction market stabilization in terms of costs.
The signs of a nascent rebound in multifamily development may already be visible, as 26 percent of companies reported an increase in construction starts during the past three months. Meanwhile, 25 percent reported fewer new projects, while 43 percent did not experience shifts in either direction.
Delays are not as impactful, with just 8 percent of respondents experiencing more construction postponements over the past 3 months. During the same interval, nearly one-third of participants reported fewer delays, while the remaining 51 percent did not suffer any timeline alterations.
Some projects just don’t pan out
Even so, not all projects pencil out in the end. Some of the reasons participants gave included current economic unfeasibility (18 percent), low rent growth (14 percent), economic uncertainty (12 percent), as well as the availability and cost of construction financing (11 percent).
While 3 percent of respondents reported fewer starts across the board, a few regions stood out. Most participants eased development activity in supply-heavy areas throughout the Sun Belt, including metros such as Atlanta, Charlotte, N.C., and Orlando, Fla., where 8 percent of companies registered fewer construction starts.
Firms likewise recorded 5 percent fewer starts across the Lone Star State, including markets such as Dallas, Houston and Austin, Texas. Three other regions were next, all tied at 4 percent, including the Mid-Atlantic, Midwest and Rockies.
