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What recovery? The housing market has, if anything, made fresh turns downwards recently. The homeownership rate has dropped to 66.4 percent, the level in 1998. It seems recovery in the housing market has not come in at least the first half of this year. Meanwhile, a new report from the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University confirms that new home sales continue near record lows, and existing home sales remain depressed. Vacancies and foreclosures continue to push down housing prices, says the Joint Center. Contrary to assertions about a structural change in people’s desires to own homes, perhaps many…

The CMBS delinquencies rate dropped in May by the biggest amount in two years. The percentage of loans that are 30+ days delinquent, in foreclosure or REO fell by 5 basis points to 9.60 percent, according to Trepp LLC. The value of delinquent loans is now $61.5 billion, says Trepp. “While there may be additional bumps along the way, we think the May numbers accurately reflect a leveling off in the market,” says Manus Clancy, managing director of Trepp. The delinquency rates for industrial and office property loans worsened, although office property loans had the lowest delinquency rate at 7.23 percent….

As they say, we won’t see a desirable employment environment in the U.S. soon. U.S. GDP growth is not expected to hit 3 percent until 2014. That analysis comes from the international real estate group Grosvenor. Grosvenor declined to call the current economy “robust.” “Analysts are pointing to major shifts in structural unemployment in the U.S. as a result of the recession,” says the real estate group. “The construction industry is a prime example of why so many people are staying unemployed for so long,” states Eileen Marrinan, director of research for San Francisco-based Grosvenor Americas. “Their skills are simply not in…

Delinquencies rates remain high, though there is light on the horizon. The CMBS conduit/fusion delinquency rate is now 9.22 percent, an increase of six basis points, according to Moody’s Investors Service. To place it in perspective, Fannie and Freddie’s multifamily delinquency rates come in below 1 percent, while the CRE delinquencies of life insurance companies are about 4 percent. “We expect the delinquency rate to run high-single to low-double digits over the near term,” states Tad Philipp, director – CRE Research, of Moodys Investors Service. “The resolution process is in full swing, and liquidations should roughly balance new defaults.” The…

Both residential and commercial real estate may still be marked by weak growth. GDP growth has dropped to 1.8 percent in the first quarter, according to government estimates released this week. And there has been an unexpected rise in the number of unemployment claims. Now, Trepp LLC maintains that the recently improving numbers for delinquencies in commercial and residential real estate loans held by banks may be reversing itself. Trepp estimates that delinquencies, which have been falling in the latter part of last year, will decline slightly in the first quarter. “Our detailed research through earnings reports and call report…

This week, the House passed FY 2011 Continuing Appropriations Act (HR 1473) to fund the federal government for this fiscal year. Altogether, $38 billion in federal spending cuts have been passed. HUD’s budget, which was $46.9 billion in FY2010, is cut by 6.4 percent for this fiscal year. Funding for the HOME block grant program for developing low-income housing, and the Community Development Block Grant program, will be reduced. The budgets for the Section 8 voucher and project based programs will see some increases, though less than the President requested. The shrinkage in the federal budget, “amounting to $2.8 billion in…