Total Commercial and Multifamily Borrowing and Lending Expected to Fall to $700B in 2023
MBA anticipates all commercial lending will bounce back next year.
$ in billions
Total commercial and multifamily mortgage borrowing and lending is expected to fall to $700 billion this year, which is a 5 percent decline from an expected 2022 total of $740 billion. This is according to an updated baseline forecast released by MBA earlier this month.
Multifamily lending alone (which is included in the total figures) is expected to drop to $393 billion in 2023—an 11 percent decline from last year’s expected total of $439 billion. MBA anticipates borrowing and lending will rebound in 2024 to $887 billion in total commercial real estate lending and $483 billion in multifamily lending.
MBA’s forecast for commercial real estate finance (CREF) markets is built on our outlook for the economy at large, which sees many key economic measures in a period of dislocation caused by the Fed’s fight against inflation.
The typical FOMC member’s expectations for the federal funds rate at the end of 2023 increased throughout 2022, jumping from 1.6 percent to 5.1 percent as of December 2022. Those shifts in outlook from the Federal Reserve are both a response to changing economic conditions and a cause of change themselves.
Commercial real estate markets are not immune to these shifts, and we expect borrowing and lending backed by commercial and multifamily properties to decline again this year. Uncertainty and volatility around the paths of the economy, interest rates, and property valuations will likely continue to cause instability for commercial real estate markets well into this year.
For additional commentary, please visit MBA’s Commercial/Multifamily Market Intelligence Blog https://www.mba.org/news-and-research/research-and-economics/commercial-multifamily-research/commercial-multifamily-market-intelligence-blog.
Jamie Woodwell is the Mortgage Bankers Association’s vice president of commercial real estate research.