National Affordable Housing Report – May 2025
Through 2027, maturity looms on more than $10 billion in loans backed by fully affordable properties, a new Yardi Matrix study shows.
Roughly $10.5 billion in debt backed by fully affordable U.S. properties is on track to reach maturity by 2027, according to a new Yardi Matrix study. The volume more than doubles to $21.7 billion by 2030.
Short term, commercial banks’ share of the total loan figure is disproportionately high because they’re the main issuer of construction notes. Such debt makes up 69.1 percent of the volume due to mature by 2027, but declines to 46.5 percent by 2030.
CMBS loans—including pooled Freddie Mac securitizations—account for 15.8 percent of the amount maturing through 2027, while 9.6 percent is made up of government entities such as HUD, local administrations and single-asset Fannie Mae notes. The data provider tracks 26,000 fully affordable properties serving as collateral for a total debt of $116.1 billion. Of these, private owners and non-governmental organizations possess 75.3 percent and 15.6 percent, respectively. Public housing authorities make up 5.9 percent, while REITs add up to 3.2 percent.
About 40 percent of the $116.1 billion loan volume is clustered around the top 10 metros with San Francisco on top ($6.8 billion), followed by Los Angeles ($5.8 billion) and Washington, D.C. ($5.5 billion). Other noteworthy markets include Miami ($4.9 billion), Seattle ($4.2 billion), Denver and Dallas ($4.1 billion each).
Though stable, affordable debt uncertainties linger
By and large, affordable debt distress is not as prevalent as its market-rate counterpart. Delinquencies are low due to favorable loan terms, including longer maturities and lower rates, as well as stable property performance.
Areas to monitor are expenses and development costs. As they increase, sponsors would have to layer different funding sources, including tax credits, soft capital, mezzanine debt, and preferred equity. A sophisticated capital stack may lead to lenders having to negotiate with multiple participants, potentially complicating deals.
Other affordable housing issues may stem from changes in government policies and initiatives. For instance, the current administration’s renter subsidies proposals could affect cash flow at properties where tenants utilize these grants, while HUD funding cuts may be detrimental to loan servicing, property management and development.
Read the full Yardi Matrix affordable housing report.
