$ in billions
We have learned in recent years just how quickly global developments can alter commercial real estate markets and lending activity.
The economic and interest rate outlook has shifted since MBA’s last updated commercial real estate finance (CREF) forecast in February. The rapid rise in interest rates is expected to take some wind out of the sails of new lending activity, but healthy property fundamentals and strong property values should support the markets and keep commercial real estate mortgage demand at strong levels. Borrowing and lending should still match last year’s record levels.
Multifamily lending is expected to remain robust during the rest of 2022 but is now expected to fall short of 2021’s record-high volumes.
Total mortgage borrowing and lending is expected to hold steady at a projected $895 billion of total lending in 2022, roughly in line with 2021 totals ($891 billion).
Multifamily lending alone (which is also included in the total figures above) is expected to fall to $418 billion in 2022, down 11 percent from last year’s estimated record of $470 billion. MBA anticipates borrowing and lending to grow in 2023, with almost $442 billion in multifamily lending.
MBA’s commercial/multifamily members can download a copy of MBA’s latest Commercial/Multifamily Real Estate Finance Forecast at www.mba.org/crefresearch.
Jamie Woodwell is the Mortgage Bankers Association’s vice president of commercial real estate research.