What Trends Will Shape the Condominium Market in 2026?
As capital stacks grow more complex and buyer preferences evolve, industry leaders outline what will matter most this year across major markets.
The U.S. condominium sector has started 2026 with a blend of resilience and complexity. Demand for well-located, design-forward product remains steady, particularly in established gateway markets such as New York and Florida, even as broader market conditions continue to evolve.
Across markets—from New York City’s resale environment to Miami’s branded, hospitality-driven towers and Tampa’s expanding condo-hotel pipeline—a common set of priorities is emerging. Quality, livability and financial clarity are increasingly separating projects that move forward from those that stall. At the same time, a higher-for-longer interest rate backdrop, shifting policy considerations and more layered capital stacks are pushing developers, buyers and lenders alike to be more selective.
What buyers looked for in 2025
Buyer preferences last year offered a clear signal for what will matter in 2026: move-in-ready quality, financial transparency and a well-defined sense of place. In Manhattan, one of the country’s strongest condo markets last year, sales rose 5.4 percent year-over-year, with the median sales price increasing 2.3 percent to $1.1 million, according to a Douglas Elliman report from the fourth quarter of 2025. Demand skewed heavily toward turnkey product.
“Buyers prioritized renovated layouts, strong financials and manageable carrying costs, a dynamic intensified by the scarcity of tax-abated units, which made monthlies a more decisive factor,” said Thomas Handschiegel, vice president of business development at New York-based Platinum Properties. Units requiring work or located in oversupplied pockets, by contrast, moved more slowly.
A similar emphasis on quality played out across the East River. In Brooklyn, limited boutique inventory in neighborhoods such as Greenpoint, Williamsburg, Gowanus and Prospect Heights met a wave of younger move-up buyers seeking what Handschiegel described as “attainable luxury.” Across both boroughs, functionality, finish and financial clarity ultimately drove sales.
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In Miami, another highly sought-after condo market, 2025 further cemented the convergence of residential living and resort-style hospitality. Michael Patrizio, managing director at Mast Capital, pointed to this blending as a defining trend, particularly in branded and design-forward developments. At his company’s The Perigon in Miami Beach, that translated into collaborations with firms such as OMA, Tara Bernerd and Gustafson Porter + Bowman, aimed at creating a highly personalized sense of place.
That focus on curation is resonating broadly across South Florida. Brad Meltzer, partner & president of Two Roads Development, noted a clear shift toward highly tailored living environments, especially in waterfront and walkable locations. In Miami, competition for developable waterfront land intensified, stretching from established districts like Brickell to emerging areas such as North Bay Village.
“Brickell has continued to attract extraordinary levels of institutional capital, with more than $1 billion invested in just the past few months,” said Jay Roberts, CEO of Prosper Group. The firm recently formed a joint venture with Belgium-based Versluys Group to develop a 57-story, $650 million high-end waterfront residential tower over the Miami River in the city’s financial district.
Aerial view of Pendry Residences Tampa, a 38-story mixed-use tower under construction along the Tampa Riverwalk. Developed by Two Roads Development in partnership with Pendry Hotels & Resorts, the project includes 207 private residences. All images courtesy of The Pendry Residences Tampa 
Rooftop pool offering views of the Hillsborough River and the surrounding downtown area. 
Private balcony overlooking the waterfront and city skyline. 
Lobby entrance at Pendry Residences Tampa, providing dedicated access for residents within the mixed-use development. 
Interior living space featuring floor-to-ceiling windows and contemporary finishes. 
Bathroom interior with modern design elements. 
Outdoor lounge area located above the Riverwalk. 
Ground-level drop-off area along Ashley Drive, serving both the residences and the hotel. 
Night aerial view of Pendry Residences Tampa with the Hillsborough River and adjacent bridge visible, highlighting the tower’s waterfront setting.
Developers remain selective
Despite a still-volatile financing environment, most developers are approaching 2026 with a willingness to stay active—albeit more selectively. Across markets, the emphasis has shifted toward disciplined execution, careful capital planning and projects that can withstand shifting interest rate and pricing conditions.
“As we look toward 2026, our strategy remains both disciplined and adaptable,” Patrizio said. At Mast Capital, that approach includes advancing select developments such as Cipriani Residences Miami, an 80-story tower rising on one of the last remaining raw parcels in Brickell capable of supporting a high-rise. Nearly two years ago, the firm secured a $600 million construction loan for the project, which is slated for completion in 2028. Patrizio noted that maintaining tight control over costs and capital will be critical as projects move forward.
Selective confidence is also evident elsewhere in Florida. In Tampa, Prosper Group is expected to break ground in the coming months on the Hotel ORA + Private Residences project, which surpassed $200 million in contracts within nine months of launch—a signal of continued demand for condo-hotel development in the region.
A similar pattern is emerging in the Northeast, though with a sharper focus on execution. Handschiegel expects strategy in New York during 2026 to hinge on clarity and timing. While mortgage rates may remain relatively stable and broadly in line with 2025 levels, success will depend on accurate pricing, early financing and the ability to respond quickly to real-time market signals.
Financing adapts to a more complex capital stack
For lenders, 2026 is shaping up as another year defined by macro uncertainty and evolving deal structures. Structural changes in how condominium projects are capitalized—combined with shifting policy and cost pressures in 2025—are reshaping underwriting and financing strategies.
“The biggest one was the tariffs,” said Glenn Grimaldi, CEO of Naftali Credit Partners, pointing to their impact on construction costs. “When you’re especially talking about condominium construction, it threw the market into a little bit of a temporary tailspin around what the costs were going to be.”
That uncertainty rippled through the development process. Developers struggled to gauge where tariffs would ultimately land, how margins might be affected and whether projects would continue to pencil. The resulting ambiguity extended into the buyer pool as well, raising concerns around potential cost overruns and even project completions. Even so, Grimaldi notes that demand for financing does not disappear when markets turn volatile.
“Our strategy is to help good borrowers and good neighborhoods access capital to build their projects and that’s the game plan. We’re betting on good clients, not against them,” he added.
What has changed more fundamentally is the composition of the capital stack. Where deals once relied primarily on a senior lender and developer equity, today’s condo projects often layer in buyer deposits—particularly in Florida—alongside mezzanine debt, preferred equity and, in some cases, tools such as C-PACE.
“The capital stack now is composed of five or six elements,” Grimaldi said. That complexity has created opportunity for private credit providers like Naftali, which frequently act as the fulcrum piece of the financing, taking on the final 10 to 20 percent of the stack and more risk than senior banks are willing to assume. In Grimaldi’s view, that role has been critical in keeping the market liquid and moving forward.
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Other lenders remain constructive, as well. “The condominium market is highly dependent on mortgage rates,” said Paul Rahimian, founder & CEO of Parkview Financial. “As the rates come down, there is a higher appetite for condominium product. We think condominiums will do better in 2026 and 2027.”
Parkview’s optimism extends across residential asset classes. The firm remains bullish on multifamily, condominiums and townhomes alike, driven by a persistent housing shortage that is expected to continue for years. “We are pushing forward with financing construction projects in this sector, including condominiums,” Rahimian said.
Geographically, both Rahimian and Grimaldi point to gateway markets and high-demand regions in the Sun Belt and Northeast as areas of focus. New York City, in particular, stands out as a high-barrier market that requires significant capital and development expertise—but also one with proven resilience.
“It’s the best market in the world for condo,” Grimaldi said. “It’s the toughest market in the world, but it’s rewarding if you stick to it and you can make a market here.”
75 Wall Street, developed by The Hakimian Organization and The Sapir Organization, is a 38-story mixed-use tower in Manhattan’s Financial District. Residence 34C, represented by Platinum Properties, is one of the high-floor condominium homes within the property. All images by Michael Muchnij, courtesy of Platinum Properties 
Bedroom positioned on an upper floor of 75 Wall Street, with windows framing views of the surrounding neighborhood. 
Living space in the residence featuring an open layout and large windows characteristic of the building’s upper-level condominium floor plans. 
Bathroom with contemporary finishes consistent with the residence’s modern interior design. 
Kitchen area designed with streamlined cabinetry and integrated appliances suited to an urban residential layout. 
The outdoor space contributes to the building’s blend of residential comfort and hospitality-inspired design, a combination that continues to shape preferences in the condominium market.
All eyes on policy, rates and migration
This year, capital and development strategies in the condominium sector are being shaped by a complex mix of macro and local forces. Inflation, interest rates and uneven construction costs remain central considerations, but policy incentives and migration patterns are increasingly influencing where capital flows and which projects move forward.
“The pace and tone of Fed cuts will shape buyer confidence, carrying costs and the return of discretionary and international capital,” Handschiegel said.
In New York, employment and wage stability across key industries will continue to influence absorption, while policy decisions loom large. Handschiegel pointed to the future of 421-a or a successor program as a potential swing factor for development feasibility, along with possible changes to SALT deductions and local property taxes—all variables that could materially affect buyer behavior and underwriting assumptions.
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These uncertainties are being closely watched beyond the Northeast. Though primarily active in Florida, Prosper Group is monitoring how New York’s leadership transition could influence capital and migration flows. A shift in policy direction, executives note, could accelerate a second wave of post-pandemic wealth migration toward markets such as Tampa and South Florida, which continue to be viewed as business-friendly, tax-advantaged and relatively stable. Those characteristics are already contributing to heightened buyer activity and faster decision-making, particularly at the high end of the market, according to Patrizio.
The 2026 outlook
A measured sense of optimism is already defining expectations for 2026, supported by steady activity and clearer signals across major condominium markets. While uncertainty will not disappear, the year ahead is increasingly being framed as one of selective opportunity rather than broad acceleration.
For Handschiegel, the outlook hinges on patience—balancing near-term uncertainty with long-term confidence in New York’s capacity to adapt and rebound. In Miami, Patrizio characterized the market’s trajectory as bright, surging and enduring, describing a shift toward a more mature phase in which recent momentum gives way to sustained, longer-term strength. Across markets, quality is emerging as the common denominator. Meltzer even pointed to an environment that favors quality over quantity, with emphasis on strong locations, distinctive architecture and amenities that enhance livability and long-term value.
Rahimian also views 2026 as a window of opportunity, citing improving mortgage-rate conditions and a persistent housing shortage that continues to support lending activity. As borrowing costs ease, he noted, condominiums are already becoming more attractive to buyers.
Taken together, these perspectives suggest a condo sector that is evolving rather than accelerating. In 2026, success is likely to favor developers, lenders and buyers who can pair disciplined capital strategies with product that feels both deeply connected to its place and responsive to changing market expectations—whether in Miami’s waterfront towers, established New York neighborhoods or other competitive condo markets nationwide.
