National Affordable Housing Report – June 2026
Although projected to shrink, U.S. affordable housing deliveries will remain above pre-2020 levels, according to a new Yardi Matrix study.
While increased funding and legislative efforts have fueled record-high affordable deliveries in recent years, current market conditions have dampened development and decelerated new completions.
Fully income-restricted deliveries clocked in at 91,841 in 2025, according to a new study of Yardi Matrix’s database, which encompasses 120,000 multifamily properties, including 26,000 fully affordable communities.
Although last year’s figure is below the all-time high of 99,558 units recorded in 2024, deliveries in 2025 were still roughly double compared to those registered during any year before 2020. Completions are expected to further compress, declining to 90,476 in 2026 and 70,977 in 2027.
Even though affordable deliveries are tempering, the rate at which they do so is not as accelerated as their market-rate counterparts. For instance, affordable completions are set to account for 19 percent of all multifamily deliveries in 2026, up from 14 percent in 2025 and roughly 10-to-11 percent between 2013 and 2021. The percentage is projected to level at around 16 to 17 percent between 2027 and 2028.
Markets are at different stages in the development cycle
At a local level, markets find themselves in different phases of the development cycle. One notable example is Austin, Texas, where fully affordable deliveries clocked in at 7,059 in 2025, marking a 43.6 percent year-over-year increase, yet projections for 2026 are significantly lower at just 3,955 units, 44 percent below 2025’s figure.
Atlanta also finds itself further along, expecting just north of 4,000 units to come online within fully affordable properties annually through 2028. Meanwhile, the market witnessed the delivery of more than 8,000 units per year between 2023 and 2025.
Deliveries across other Sun Belt metros are still set to grow further this year, including Houston (53.5 percent year-over-year forecasted increase in 2026), Denver (46.4 percent) and Phoenix (39.2 percent). Yet, it’s Florida markets that are front-runners for projected completion growth in 2026, including Tampa (135.8 percent) and Orlando (73.3 percent).
The starts record was more than a decade in the making
Construction starts in fully income-restricted affordable housing properties peaked in 2023, when 94,873 units entered the national pipeline following more than a decade of annual increases. Since then, starts have declined, falling to 85,662 units in 2024 and then to 81,230 units last year. This pullback in starts is driving the moderate shrinking pattern in affordable housing completions across the U.S.
Market conditions, such as high construction costs, elevated interest rates and declining tax credit pricing, altered the economics of affordable housing development, which resulted in fewer deals being penciled out. The less favorable environment accelerated as of late, with starts declining 16.9 percent year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 19.9 percent during the first quarter of 2026.
While government efforts to incentivize affordable housing development do exist, results may vary, with programs often being slow to translate into new construction. Income-restricted projects still face the same timelines and cost pressures felt by their market-rate counterparts. What’s more, income-restricted developments may be required to undergo additional applications and compliance programs that could dilute the impact of increased funding.
This environment leads developers to a more selective approach with fewer projects being viable, while investors continue relying on a targeted group of favorable markets where development continues to pencil out, raising exposure to local conditions and project timing.
Read the full Yardi Matrix affordable housing report.
