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Welcome to 2009 “Voters don’t want good government, they want good entertainment!” Louisiana Governor Earl Long, just before his wife committed him to a mental hospital for taking up with Blaze Starr, stripper and constant companion.  (I believe Blaze was a childhood idol for Sarah Palin.) Leadership, it seems comes in all shapes and sizes. Between the old adages, “Vote early and often,” to Governor Edwards of Louisiana, who said, early in 1983, “If we don’t get Dave Treen out of office, there won’t be anything left to steal,” politics has always provided an interesting cast of characters. With the…

Part 1  This weekend I had the opportunity to introduce to the public a family that had worked very hard to gain equity in a property they were about to purchase—a Habitat for Humanity home in Fullerton. In presenting the keys for the home to this Mexican-American family of five, I was struck by the irony of the situation; while something like one in ten of their peer group was either behind in mortgage payments, or facing foreclosure outright, this clan was about to enter the precious heart of the American dream—a home of their own. But the descriptor “their…

As we near the end of 2008, it probably comes as no surprise, that the Dr. Kervorkian of automobile investing, Tracinda Corporation's billionaire investor Kirk Kerkorian, has sold off all of his remaining shares of Ford Motor Co. Having successfully purchased almost $1 billion in shares at an average price of $7.10, Kerkorian sold approximately 134 million shares at around $2.45 a share, a loss in excess of 65%. Apparently his offer to help resuscitate Ford fell on a dumb board of directors, who were fearful of Tracinda's influence. Ford has withdrawn from the Fed bailout, leaving Chrysler and GM…

How bad can it get? What a question to ask just before we head into the peak of the holidays. Nevertheless, here are some forecasts for the apartment industry for the new year. Among the industry experts we are in touch with, at worst there is the prediction that the vacancy rate next year may get as high as during the end of the recession of the late-1980s/early-1990s. Mark Obrinsky, chief economist of National Multi Housing Council (NMHC), says that the vacancy rate (for professionally managed apartments), now 6.2 percent, may head to at least the 7.9 percent level last…

"A lot of people in that plant feel betrayed by their own government. This is class warfare by Republicans against blue-collar workers," United Auto Workers Local 2209 President Orval Plumlee.  With the big 3 automakers shutting down plant operations for at least the next 30 days, if not longer, UAW rank and file are planning to send a message to their former employers, and it won't be pretty. Their anger is palpable and may show up in a variety of ways. The may vote out their current leadership in exchange for tougher negotiations, or some of them might sign up…

Once I built a tower, up to the sun, brick, and rivet, and lime; Once I built a tower, now it's done. Brother, can you spare a dime?(c) "Brother, Can You Spare a Dime," lyrics by Yip Harburg, music by Jay Gorney (1931) With over $500 billion in commercial real estate loans coming up for renegotiation in the next 3 years, according to some estimates and approximately one third of that in 2009, a number of real estate groups have asked Treasury Secretary Paulson to include commercial real estate as a permissible sector under TARP. With the greatest risks apparently…

When reporting on multifamily finance in the 2000s, I came across a common refrain from desperate mortgage bankers again and again: “There is a surplus of money chasing a limited amount o f product.” This intensely competitive environment—for lenders, that is—went on for years, seemingly never-ending. But the capital “surplus” environment did come to an end. What Sam Chandan, chief economist of Reis, said recently at the company’s third quarter briefing throws light on the situation. He cited an essay about banking crises. Such a crisis happened, famously, in Japan in the 1980s. The cycle begins thus: There is some…

"I think we will see a rebound in the economy partly because of this substantial easing that we've seen from the Fed, but I think it will be delayed. I think we are likely to see clear evidence of this emerging towards the end of the fourth quarter this year and a rebound well under way in the first quarter next year." Actor Jimmy Stewart, 1949 Seen this movie before? There have been a lot of questions lately about how the multi-family industry is faring against the backdrop of all of the Federal initiatives. One of the favorite holiday classics…

As the holidays approach, observers of the economy are likely in anything but a festive spirit. A rash of recent news has proven that the turmoil is far from over, and the situation may well become significantly worse before it gets better. The auto industry’s requested bailout remains in limbo at the moment, with President Bush saying he might use funds from the Troubled Asset Relief Program to aid automakers in avoiding bankruptcy. Bush would not provide a timeline for such a plan, which would involve providing the Big Three auto companies with money from TARP, which was originally earmarked…

This is an unprecedented time, as far as I can tell. In the height of the holiday season, when thoughts usually turn to snow angels, twinkling lights and shopping deals, the reverie usually reserved for festive parties has been stolen and replaced by endless news about layoffs, failed federal policy responses and endemic fears about losing one's job. Recently it has come to light that the TARP initiative has failed to provide any modest level of relief for the property sector because the banks taking advantage of the funds haven't followed through on loosening credit standards to average borrowers. Although…