In announcing the proposed Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) budget this week, HUD Secretary Donovan seemed to affirm a shift in direction from the Bush years—towards a renewed emphasis on rental housing. Speaking in a teleconference to reporters, he said that the focus has been missing for “too long” from rental housing. He commented that we have had “accelerated disinvestment in key housing and community efforts” in the country in the past few years. And that we have had “a housing policy focused almost exclusively on homeownership at the expense and/or neglect of rental housing as a part…

The Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) was extended by the Obama Administration in February to provide government financing to private investors for the purchase of CMBS in addition to other types of asset-backed securities. At this point, signs that TALF would have a positive effect in reviving the conduits market may not be good.  According to Sam Chandan, president and chief economist of Real Estate Economics LLC, in his Monday report of April 13, the results of the second round of funding from the government “raise serious questions about the viability of the TALF program in its current form.”…

How bad can it get? What a question to ask just before we head into the peak of the holidays. Nevertheless, here are some forecasts for the apartment industry for the new year. Among the industry experts we are in touch with, at worst there is the prediction that the vacancy rate next year may get as high as during the end of the recession of the late-1980s/early-1990s. Mark Obrinsky, chief economist of National Multi Housing Council (NMHC), says that the vacancy rate (for professionally managed apartments), now 6.2 percent, may head to at least the 7.9 percent level last…

When reporting on multifamily finance in the 2000s, I came across a common refrain from desperate mortgage bankers again and again: “There is a surplus of money chasing a limited amount o f product.” This intensely competitive environment—for lenders, that is—went on for years, seemingly never-ending. But the capital “surplus” environment did come to an end. What Sam Chandan, chief economist of Reis, said recently at the company’s third quarter briefing throws light on the situation. He cited an essay about banking crises. Such a crisis happened, famously, in Japan in the 1980s. The cycle begins thus: There is some…

By Keat Foong, Executive Editor When reporting on multifamily finance in the 2000s, I came across a common refrain from desperate mortgage bankers again and again: “There is a surplus of money chasing a limited amount of product.” This intensely competitive environment—for lenders, that is—went on for years, seemingly never ending. But the capital “surplus” environment did come to an end. What Sam Chandan, chief economist of Reis, said recently at the company’s third quarter briefing throws light on the situation. He cited an essay about banking crises. Such a crisis happened, famously, in Japan in the 1980s. The cycle…

The apartment sector had been holding out relatively well compared to other industries, but it too will succumb to the massive loss of jobs that is expected to accelerate as we go into 2009. Through the third quarter, the national apartment vacancy rate according to the Census Bureau was 10.7 percent, only 0.3 percent higher compared to the same period a year ago and still below the level in 2003-04, reported the National Multi Housing Council (NMHC). And rents continued to rise through September, albeit at a slower rate and less than the rate of inflation. The apartment fundamentals however,…

The apartment investment sales market since the financial market crisis occurred in mid-September has “freezed up” as apartment buyers and sellers face deep uncertainty over the future of the nation’s—indeed, the global—economic condition. According to the results of one study, reported here in the previous issue, apartment sales volume has plunged a whopping 69 percent. Indeed, one broker, Kitty Wallace, senior vice president at Sperry Van Ness, says that in her experience in California, multi-housing transactions have dropped 70 to 80 percent. The severe drop in apartment investment sales volume generally is attributed to a combination of negative sentiment and…