Probably the best commentary I’ve heard when listening to the housing economists from the National Association of Realtors comes from Forrest Gump, who said: “Stupid is as stupid does.” Forrest Gump (c) Robert Zemeckis, Paramount Pictures 1994 And now the proof: Jed Smith, managing director of quantitative research at NAR was recently quoted as saying, “There is a slight trend showing that people are beginning to realize that houses are a good buy right now.” Meanwhile, Lawrence Yun NAR’s chief economist is quoted as saying, “Pending home sales have a long way to go for there to be a meaningful…

“Whoever knows he is deep, strives for clarity; whoever would like to appear deep to the crowd, strives for obscurity. For the crowd considers anything deep if only it cannot see to the bottom: the crowd is so timid and afraid of going into the water.”Friedrich Nietzsche (1844-1900) At the NMHC Research meeting, just concluded in Chicago, the sidebar conversations were as interesting as the content. While the meeting was billed as the researcher's response to the year of the operator (in China, it's between the year of the Rat and the year of the Water Buffalo), the perceptions of…

I’m at the NMHC Research meeting staying at the Chicago Renaissance Hotel. OK, first things first, they shouldn’t name a hotel Renaissance anything because it’s too hard to spell. What happened to calling a hotel a hotel? Isn’t the name Marriott too long anyway? Then, after a hard day of running around, visiting friends and walking around sunny and freezing Chicago (..hey I have an idea, next time why not Antarctica? I hear they have great room rates and it’s warmer than Chicago?), I went back to my hotel to get some work done. I’m on the 17th floor above…

What a crazy time to be alive. So many of us have been waiting through this difficult “economic circumstance” for signs that things might be getting a little better. We can’t help but continue to scour the horizon for the little glimpse to encourage us. I think it was Confucius who said, “You cannot step twice into the same river.” For those of us in the housing business, I think this is particularly true. “When will things hit bottom? Will we know it when they do? What will be the signs? How will we know?” I watch the industry news…

Frankie: (as the Rat Pack carry Von Zipper away) Toodle-ooo Mouseketeers! (Annette Funicello as Dee Dee is standing next to him.) Beach Blanket Bingo, (c) Alta Vista Productions 1965 Florida, the favored retirement Mecca and employment destination of choice is anticipating a dip in population growth, running at the lowest level in almost 60 years. According to research recently released by the University of Florida, projected growth has declined more than 90 percent off of the annual average between 2002 and 2006. Both job creation losses and the housing bust are cited as failures according to the report, as primary…

I am on the Pickens Plan thing and when they ask me to send along form letters to my reps, I usually do. Eventually, I will receive an equally form reply from whoever. Below is Sen Hutchison’s most recent reply. To be honest, it could have come from any Senator. In fact, maybe there is a secret government web site that generates pithy replies on their behalf – like YouCanFoolSomeOfThePeople.gov or something. (If so, they need to improve the speed of turn around. I think I sent my email over a month ago.)  Anyway, sometimes when I read this rubbish…

“I disagree with people who think you learn more from getting beat up than you do from winning.” –Tom Cruise, actor, producer, controversial talk show guest and couch jumper.   AIG is in the news again, and this time it’s about the bonus payments to undeserving executives. As you can imagine, just about every pundit and a bunch of congress members all have opinions, and not surprisingly, they don’t agree. I think the issue has been fundamentally overblown, and if you take away the politics and headline grabbing news, this is a pretty simple issue. Let me illustrate the point….

“I am not worried about the deficit. It is big enough to take care of itself.” President Ronald Reagan Colorado National Bank, Colorado Springs, Colo. just failed. It was taken over by Herring Bank, Amarillo Texas. (I wonder what the logo is for Herring Bank?) Teambank, N.A. of Paola, Kan. just failed. It was taken over by Great Southern Bank, Springfield, Miss. FirstCity Bank of Stockbridge, Ga. just failed. They couldn’t find a bank to take it over. So we have real distress in small town America – Colorado Springs, Paola and Stockbridge. Not exactly household names, but representative of…

Well, if you will pardon the cheesy intro, allow me to relay my feelings following a day-long seminar featuring each of these engaging speakers, in addition to Joel Bess, Eric Jacobsen and the extremely articulate Roberta Ahmanson. Holy cow! Seriously, it was a lot for one person to absorb. I can’t recall the last time any industry-related daylong seminar was so intellectually stimulating. What is my measure of “intellectually stimulating,” you may ask. To hear Alexis de Tocqueville quoted three times before lunch is a pretty good yardstick for me. The conference at which all this great learning plus reasoning…

Unlike other sectors of commercial real estate, the multi-housing sector is lucky in that we still have construction financing available to us. We are talking government-insured construction financing. And no, the financing does not require that the developer build low-income, or rent-restricted, housing in any way. Neither is it a “voucher program” etc. Get this right: this type of financing applies to market-rate apartments. The architecture firm Humphreys and Partners Architects LP recently sponsored a webinar on Federal Housing Administration-insured financing, in particular focusing on the FHA “221(d)(4)” program for new construction and substantial rehab (FHA also makes possible acquisition/rehab…