National Multifamily Report – February 2025
The slower part of the leasing season ended with a minor uptick in short-term rent growth, Yardi Matrix data shows.
At the tail end of the winter season, and with economic uncertainty on the rise, the U.S. multifamily market maintained steady performance, according to Yardi Matrix’s latest survey of 140 markets. The average U.S. advertised asking rent gained $1 in February to $1,751, for a 1.2 percent year-over-year increase, and the U.S. occupancy rate remained consistent at 94.5 percent in February, with records of negative performance in many high-supply markets. Single-family build-to-rent advertised asking rents stayed unchanged at $2,165 in February, up 0.2 percent year-over-year. SFR occupancy held at 94.7 percent in February.
Rent growth remained widely varied regionally, with the top 10 in Matrix’s ranking of major metros occupied entirely by Midwest and Northeast markets. New York remained in the lead with a 5.6 percent year-over-year increase in advertised asking rents, followed by Kansas City (4.1 percent), Columbus (3.8 percent), Chicago (3.6 percent) and Detroit (3.5 percent). Negative advertised rent growth was recorded in many Sun Belt metros, including Austin (-5.1 percent), Denver (-3.1 percent) and Phoenix (-2.2 percent).
The largest drops in occupancy were recorded in metros with supply growth above 4 percent of existing stock, led by Denver (-0.9 percent), Nashville (-0.5 percent), Dallas, Phoenix and Orlando (all down 0.4 percent). The highest occupancy gains were recorded in San Francisco, Las Vegas and Baltimore (all 0.3 percent).
Steady rent performance ahead of the new leasing season
On a month-over-year basis, national advertised asking rents rose 0.1 percent in February, sustained by a 0.1 percent uptick in the Renter-by-Necessity segment, while Lifestyle remained flat. New York also led in short-term rent growth, up 0.9 percent month-over-month (1.1 percent in Lifestyle and 0.5 percent in RBN). Columbus followed, with rents up 0.5 percent (0.1 percent in Lifestyle and 0.6 percent in RBN). Bottom-ranking positions for rent performance were occupied by Austin (-0.4 percent overall, -0.4 percent in Lifestyle and -0.5 percent in RBN) and Denver (-0.5 percent overall, -0.4 percent in Lifestyle and -0.5 percent in RBN).
Although typically rent growth picks up in March, several challenges confront it. These include the pace of absorption of 2024’s deliveries, which was the highest number in decades, and the policies brought by the new administration on the economy.
Following the peak in deliveries recorded in 2024, multifamily supply will decelerate, as new construction has plummeted across the U.S. This will allow high-supply markets to absorb the recent surge of units, but there is also the risk of weaker demand. While in 2024 supply growth was the main factor in multifamily rent growth, in 2025 the durability of demand is essential. More than 500,000 units were absorbed nationally in 2024—including affordable housing and single-family rental build-to-rent properties—and 613,000 units were delivered. With supply growth now decelerating, as construction starts dropped to 363,000 units in 2024, Matrix forecasts deliveries will lower to 525,000 units in 2025, and 414,000 units in 2026.
The U.S. single-family build-to-rent market also maintained a steady performance, with advertised asking rents flat in February at $2,165, up 0.2 percent year-over-year. SFR occupancy fell 0.7 percent year-over-year to 94.7 percent in February. SFR construction starts and deliveries are dwindling until 2026, but slower than multifamily. Matrix forecasts build-to-rent single-family deliveries to fall 6 percent in 2025 compared to 2024, while multifamily is anticipated to drop 14 percent. BTR completions are set to account for 6.3 percent of multifamily supply in 2025 and 6.8 percent in 2026, a significant jump from the 2 percent in 2019. BTR deliveries over the next two years are expected to be highest in Phoenix (8,670 units), Dallas (6,422 units), Atlanta (5,135 units), Austin (2,940 units) and Charlotte (2,798 units).
Read the full Yardi Matrix multifamily real estate report.
