Economist's View

Economist’s View: Look Before You Leap
A wait-and-see attitude is the prudent approach when making investment decisions in the age of COVID-19, according to economist Hugh F. Kelly.
The COVID-19 Economy: Beyond the Tipping Point
The pandemic is exacerbating long-overlooked economic weaknesses. Hugh Kelly sketches a map of the difficult road ahead.
Economist View: What Price Is Too High to Pay?
In a short time, the U.S. economy and the commercial real estate industry has been set up to fall very far, according to Dr. Peter Linneman.
Economist’s View: Investment Is About Expected Returns
A drop-off in business confidence is an indicator of an uncertain future, notes economist Hugh F. Kelly.
Get Ready for CRE’s ‘New Normal’
According to economist Hugh Kelly, there are reasons to believe the U.S. economy is already shifting into "an altered state that will require significant adjustments to conventional expectations for commercial property."
Why the Yield Curve Is Not the Bellwether It Used to Be
The entire government debt market is so manipulated by the Fed and major foreign governments that the yield curve no longer says much about market beliefs, according to Dr. Peter Linneman.
How Trade Wars Affect CRE, the Economy
How do trade policies affect the real estate industry? Economist Hugh Kelly surveys lessons from economic history and looks ahead to the likely impacts.
Economic View: Why You Should Watch the Yield Curve
Some key economic indicators show continued strength, but there is more to the story. Trends in the yield curve appear to presage leaner times ahead, advises Hugh Kelly, the veteran real estate economist and CPE columnist.
In the Next Downturn, Public Markets Will Be CRE Investors’ Best Bet
Those expecting to hunt for discounts during the next down cycle should get up to speed now on REITs, contends Dr. Peter Linemann.
CRE Investors: Proceed With Caution
Early economic indicators point to a slowdown in growth in 2019. Nevertheless, as the U.S. enters its 10th year of expansion, optimism among commercial real estate investors persists, according to economist George Ratiu.
Get Ready for an Extended Slowdown in CRE Demand
An inverted yield curve and forecasts of a dropoff in job growth are among the signals that the industry’s long, great ride may soon be ending, says economist Hugh Kelly.
The View from the Peak: Winter is Coming
After a decade of economic expansion, prosperity continues. But tightening by the Federal Reserve is likely to weaken consumer and business buying power, thereby dampening growth, contends NAR's George Ratiu.