The Tunnel at the End of the Light?

Inflation might increase at a rapid trajectory, sinking much of what was gained in the past six months.

There’s an old Chinese proverb that I like: “If we don’t change direction, we’re going to end up where we’re headed.” It reminds me of the current state of commercial real estate finance and how it will inevitably affect the apartment industry. So far, including the last part of 2010, we’re heading into a low cycle, one characterized by gradually improving business conditions, growth in general employment and some settling in the investment markets. I’ve been saying for years that this recession, despite the oddly shaped dip you see on graphs in the paper, has really been a leaking trough. It helps to explain why it has taken so long for the demand to back-fill that annoying drip that caused concessions to grow.

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