Pricing Nowcast

Commercial real estate pricing maintained its very slow upward pace in September according to the Ten-X Commercial Nowcast.
Source: Ten-X

Commercial real estate pricing maintained its very slow upward pace in September according to the Ten-X Commercial Nowcast, which inched up 0.2 percent from August, placing the index up just 0.8 percent from one year ago.

Office posted September’s highest monthly increase, rising 0.9 percent and putting prices up 4.6 percent from one year ago. All regions except the Midwest posted monthly gains in September, with the Southwest showing the strongest gain, at 2.6 percent. All regions except the Midwest are also up year-over-year, with the Southwest showing a 20.2 percent gain.

Retail is up 4.1 percent year-over-year, increasing in all but one month so far this year. Pricing is currently strongest in the Northeast, up 16.1 percent year-over-year and weakest in the West, now in negative territory.  

Hotel has been flat since mid-2017 and September was even with the month before and down slightly from one year ago. Hotel pricing in the Midwest, West and Northwest are up from one year ago, while the Southeast and Southwest are down, with the Southwest down a sharp 11.7 percent from last year.

Apartments dipped 0.1 percent in September and is down 1 percent year-over-year. This month’s decline is the fourth in the first nine months of the year. This meandering pattern is evident across the regions, though the Northeast showing the most weakness, down 4.1 percent on a 0.6 percent monthly decline, the third consecutive monthly drop.

While industrial prices were flat in September, the overall negative pricing trend for the segment persists, down 3.2 percent year-over-year. The Northeast has seen the weakest pricing, down 14.1 percent year-over-year, despite a slight uptick last month. The Midwest remains the standout for industrial pricing, up 9 percent year-over-year, with a 1 percent monthly increase in September.

Peter Muoio is the chief economist at Ten-X.