Economy Watch Weekly: US Economic Expansion Enters Third Cycle

Economy Editor Dees Stribling offers an outlook on the longest economic cycle in U.S. history, based on the Wells Fargo Investment Institute’s midyear analysis.

The current U.S. economic expansion—which has been going on almost as long as any in U.S. history—is at the beginning of its final third, while other developed and emerging economies aren’t quite as far along in their business cycles, according to the Wells Fargo Investment Institute 2018 Midyear Outlook. The characteristics of the last third of a cycle are when growth moderates, credit tightens, earnings are pressured, interest rates rise faster, confidence peaks and inflation is higher. 

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Associated Builders and Contractors reported recently that its Construction Backlog Indicator (CBI) contracted to 8.8 months during the first quarter of 2018, down 9 percent from the previous quarter. Economy Editor Dees Stribling gives a breakdown of these two topics, for the week ending June 22, 2018.